Geospatial-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use in the Juárez Valley: Urbanization and Displacement of Agriculture

Urbanization and industrial development in the Juárez Valley, Chihuahua, Mexico, have led to abandonment loss of productive agricultural areas. However, extent dynamics this phenomenon are not precisely known due lack updated information. Therefore, it is necessary geospatially represent these changes over time predict their probability persistence into future provide decision-making tools for border region Mexico. Landsat images were processed, random forest was applied as a classifier obtain land uses from 1980 2020. The Land Change Modeler options Terrset™ executed generate use changes, probabilities. Results showed that urban, built-up areas gained 19,962 ha by 2020 while crops lost 1675 ha. Agricultural permanence has been consolidated (persistence until 0.83), but evidence suggests will decrease urbanization (decreasing 0.59 2100). This could jeopardize availability primary products food, lead exacerbate socio-demographic expansion vulnerable region.